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Consensus Economics

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Consensus Economics, established in 1989 and headquartered in London, is the world’s leading global macroeconomic survey firm, polling a wide range of local and multi-national economists in diverse sectors for their forecasts for almost 1000 macroeconomics indicators for 86 countries. Consensus Forecasts™ survey data is released on a monthly basis, with individual country forecasts within four main regions:

  • G7 industrialized nations + Western Europe
  • Asia Pacific
  • Eastern Europe
  • Latin America

In addition to these monthly benchmarks, Consensus Economics also monitors and collects daily GDP and Inflation forecasts which serve as anticipatory leading indicators of the monthly Consensus Forecasts.

Four times a year (in January, April, July and October), Consensus Economics collects long-term forecasts for countries in Western and Eastern Europe, North and South America and the Asia Pacific region.

Key Features and Coverage on RIMES

For this data source, RIMES hosts the following data modules:

MONTHLY: CECFSF – Consensus Economics Current and the Following Year Survey Consensus Forecasts – individual company forecasts and the average Consensus (mean), high, low and standard deviation of all forecasts.

DAILY: CEDGIF – Consensus Economics Daily GDP and Inflation Forecast Updates – this data series includes individual forecasts as well as the Consensus (mean average) for both variables. These services of daily data (which are compiled weekly) began at the end of 2010 and cover all four regions listed above.

LONG-TERM: CELTCF – Consensus Economics Long Term Consensus Forecasts – database of long-term forecasts on a rolling 5 to 10 year forecast horizon across all countries in all four major regions.

MONTHLY:

Consensus Economics publishes the Consensus Forecasts™ on a monthly basis. These are macroeconomic expectations, including for GDP growth, inflation, interest rates and exchange rates, for a wide range of individual countries, and are divided into four main regional databases:

For 30 years, Consensus Economics has been collecting forecasts on a monthly basis from independent, private-sector economists for a range of variables (some of which are listed below). The forecasts are for the current and following year -> t and t+1. The Consensus is simply the average (mean) forecast of these individual forecasts for a particular variable and year.

Macroeconomic variables covered: Examples of the macroeconomic variables covered in the Consensus Economics service include: GDP growth, Consumption, Investment, Industrial Production, Wages & Salaries, Consumer Prices, Producer Prices, Budget Balances, Unemployment, Current Account, 3 Month Interest Rates, 10 Year Government Bond Yields and Exchange Rates. Please note, that exact definitions and the coverage of variables may differ between countries due to country practice.

DAILY:

Since its inception in 1989, the primary objective of Consensus Economics has been to create monthly macroeconomic forecast estimates that are up-to-date and accurate. This is enhanced by choosing country panellists with reputations for producing comprehensive forecasts; using consistent definitions for variables covered; and checking and, if necessary, challenging the correctness of data received. In order to supplement the results of these monthly surveys and provide even more timely data, Consensus Economics started collecting daily forecast revisions between its monthly survey dates in late 2010, allowing users to track changes in expectations continually through time. “Continuous Consensus Forecasts,” which includes daily updates compiled weekly, covers GDP growth and CPI inflation in more than 60 countries, allowing users to monitor individual forecast changes and new forecasts in between the four monthly regional surveys.

  • Continuous (daily) Consensus Forecasts measures frequently anticipate the results of the following month’s survey, as can be seen in the Euro zone graph above. Subsequent testing of these higher frequency measures in comparison to the regular monthly survey data has produced favorable results. This RIMES service includes:
  • Individual and Consensus forecasts for each of the major countries and a selection of the additional countries listed in our four regional macroeconomic publications.
  • Both annual forecasts and quarter-by-quarter forecasts (individual and Consensus) for the current and following year.

LONG:

Consensus Economics has been collecting long-term forecasts (out to 10 years from the survey date) since 1989. This expectation data is updated quarterly and is available in four separate regional databases, including the countries listed below:

Macroeconomic variables covered: The forecasts are presented as annual % changes across the 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 year horizons from the survey date, and also as period averages across the 6-10 year horizon. The exact definitions of variables covered may vary slightly from country to country – for example, we survey for Industrial Production in Germany and for Manufacturing Production in the United Kingdom (to exclude North Sea Oil).

Useful Links:

For further information on Long-term Consensus Forecasts, please send a message at either of the contact pages below:

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