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Consensus Economics Current and Following Year Survey Forecasts

 

MONTHLY CONSENSUS FORECASTS

Consensus Economics, established in 1989, publishes the Consensus Forecasts™ on a monthly basis. These are macroeconomic expectations, including for GDP growth, inflation, interest rates and exchange rates, for a wide range of individual countries, and are divided into four main regional modules:

What are monthly Consensus Forecasts?

For almost 30 years, Consensus Economics has been collecting forecasts on a monthly basis from independent, private-sector economists for a range of variables (some of which are listed below). The forecasts are for the current year and the next year t and t+1. The Consensus is simply the average (mean) forecast of these individual forecasts for a particular variable and year.

Accuracy of the Consensus mean average

Academics and central-bank researchers have studied the accuracy of combining individual forecasts into one aggregated mean for decades. Such studies generally conclude that Consensus Forecasts™ are often better at predicting the actual outturn of a variable (like GDP growth) over an extended period than one individual forecast making up the Consensus. Few, if any, individuals manage to consistently outperform the average over an extended period — although in any one year some individual forecasters can and may well do better than the Consensus in predicting outcomes for particular variables in some years.

The Monthly Consensus Forecast is a leading benchmark against which investment managers, corporate planners, government ministeries and central banks can measure their own macroeconomic forecasts. Some use the Monthly Consensus Forecast to build their own scenarios for the medium-term economic outlook.

Macroeconomic variables covered

Examples of the macroeconomic variables covered in the Consensus Economics service include: GDP growth, Consumption, Investment, Industrial Production, Wages & Salaries, Consumer Prices, Producer Prices, Budget Balances, Unemployment, Current Account, 3 Month Interest Rates and 10 Year Government Bond Yields. Please note, that exact definitions and the coverage of variables may differ between countries due to country practice.

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Key Features and Coverage on RIMES

For this data source, RIMES hosts approximately 320 indices and 1080 companies. Index coverage includes various countries – Consensus (Mean), High, Low, Number of Forecasts, and Standard Deviation. Some of the data items available include:

  • Budget Balance in Units Forecast Year 1988 – 2019
  • Budget Balance % of GDP Forecast Year 1993 – 2019
  • Car Sales in Units Forecast Year 1989 – 2019
  • Consumer Prices CPI % Change Forecast Year 1989 – 2019
  • Consumption % Change Forecast Year 1989 – 2019
  • Corporate Profits % Change Forecast Year 1989 – 2019
  • Current Account in Units Forecast Year 1989 – 2019
  • Currency Reserves in Units Forecast Year 1993 – 2019
  • Exports in Units Forecast Year 1993 – 2019
  • Exports % Change Forecast Year 1989 – 2019
  • Real GDP % Change Forecast Year 1989 – 2019
  • Government Consumption % Change Forecast Year 2002 – 2019
  • Housing Starts in Units Forecast Year 1989 – 2019
  • Imports in Units Forecast Year 1993 – 2019
  • Imports % Change Forecast Year 1989 – 2019
  • Industrial or Manufacturing Production % Change Forecast Year 1989 – 2019
  • Real Investment % Change Forecast Year 1989 – 2019
  • Long Term Prime Lending Rate Forecast Year in 3, 12 Months
  • Money Supply End Period % Change Forecast Year 1989 – 2019
  • Non-Oil and Gas Exports in Units Forecast Year 1994 – 2019
  • Producer Prices % Change Forecast Year 1989 – 2019
  • Re-exports in Units Forecast Year 1994 – 2019
  • Retail Prices (RPIX) % Change Forecast Year 1989 – 2019
  • Short Term Lending Rate Forecast Year in 3, 12 Months
  • Spot Rate (3, 12, 24 Month)
  • Trade Balance in Units Forecast Year 1993 – 2019
  • Unemployment Rate % of Labour Force Forecast Year 1989 – 2019
  • Wages % Change Forecast Year 1989 – 2019

To access these three modules, please contact us.

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